Sunday, July 15, 2012

The Great Recession: Part II

Sorry for the prolonged hiatus.  I had some business dealings that needed to be addressed.  So, how has everyone enjoyed the market lately?  Well, Europe changes its story, pretty much on a daily basis.  You have to love the media, by reporting that Europe "Feels confident that it might have an answer to the debt issue."  And, the market goes up.  It is true about any good or bad news that is announced by the oh so smart media. 

The problem with today's market is that it is too easily influenced by the media.  The reason for that is today's market has everyone in it; educated, uneducated and ignorant.  Fifty years ago, you had much fewer investors in the market and mutual funds did not exist or were extremely new.  The only people invested in the market are the ones who had money and had a pretty good idea of the value of companies, because they were priced in the market much closer to the real value as opposed to the pseudo value they are assigned today.  It is more confusing today, however, there is greater opportunity to be taken advantage of, if you can anticipate the market.

Ah, anticipating the market is basically impossible, because it is so random and is affected by investors who have no idea what they are doing.  This causes all stock prices to be incorrectly priced at all times.  The saavy investor will see this and take advantage.  I must quantify this as the investor must be long on this investment.  If you try to trade in this market, just like a casino, the longer you are in and the more trades you make, you'll eventually lose. 

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