Predictions: 2009 Edition

Happy New Year, one day late. Sorry, but I was indisposed during yesterday and could not post my most anticipated discussion to date. And, without further delay here are my predictions I think will happen in 2009 and predictions that most likely won’t happen, but would present an interesting scenario for the public, if any one came to be. Here we go!!

Predictions That May Happen In 2009

-The Bernie Madoff debacle will total well in excess of $50 Billion. It will most likely be released that the scheme is closer to $100 Billion.

-Tolls across the country will be increased due to the decline in travel.

-The number of billionaires world-wide will shrink to under 1,000. There are currently about 1,125.

-The British pound will sink below the value of the American Dollar.

-Housing prices will continue to decline for the entire year of 2009.

-The DOW will drop below 7000 within the first 100 days of 2009 (April 10, 2009, in case you want to count it out to figure out the date.).

-More ridiculous bailouts for big, stupid companies that suck. Bailouts do three very bad things:

1.They undermine capitalism (think of Darwin’s Theory of survival of the fittest), 2. Create Big Government (please do not interpret my fear of Big Gov’t to mean I’m a Republican and also do not misconstrue that because I said I’m not a Republican that it means I’m a Democrat. I’m an American)_
The Big change O’Bama is supposed to make, will not happen. This guy is a politician, not Batman! The only change that occurred is we elected a President who is one, not white and two not old. However, I think we elected the right guy, because the other guy would’ve been just like the current guy and the other guy teamed up with the chick from Alaska who is an embarrassment. The whole point of being elected President, it to “be elected President”. The means and the end are the same.

-One of the big three auto companies will fail or at least file for bankruptcy.
At least one country in the European union will drop the Euro as their currency and go back to their old form of currency.

Predictions That Most Likely Won’t Happen in 2009, But Would Be Interesting If They Did

-England will default. This would be crazy, but not impossible. Their economy is going through the worst dookie storm in their proud history. Everyone expects countries like Brazil and Russia to default (they have before), but if a vital country such as England defaulted, the snowball effect would land the world into the deepest depression in history.

-AIG fails. This is not out of the question by any means. The fact that they are spending their portion of bailout money to pay dividends and bonuses to their sorry excuse for an executive staff, shows they could possibly blow through that money without investing it into the actual company to make it viable. So, all that money could be blown and all those policy owners, employees and not to mention the taxpayers all get left holding the bag.

-Unemployment will reach 20%. Not likely, but if either of the previous two predictions comes true, it will definitely happen.

-Oil will drop below $25 per barrel. Oil is sitting at just below $42, but I think it bottomed at $34, which I believe was an overcorrection. Again, if any of the previous three happen, you could see the demand sink so much that it will drive the price to those levels.

-China’s economy will blow up (not literally and not in a good way). This is probably going to happen, just not likely in 2009. I believe their business practices will be the reason for the demise of that country’s economy. With the lead paint thing from 2007 to the importation of fish that they breed in overcrowded fish farms (they basically swim in their own waste which contaminates the filet.), their due for a collapse.

-Housing market recovers. Not likely this soon, but it is wishful thinking on my part. I bought a house in July 2008 and would like to see my equity increase, but in reality it is probably worth less than what we bought it for despite the great price we got it for. Rest assured, my property tax assessment will still increase and so I’ll have to take off of work to go to grievance day. Super!!

-Oil exporters will figure out how to protect their tankers from pirates. The fact that pirates even exist in today’s world is beyond me. These guys show up and take over an oil tanker with a five man raft with a motor on it. I can see that happening once and then just hiring a sharp shooter for $10,000 to, I don’t know, shoot a hole in the f’ing raft. If they make the adjustment and come in a wooden raft, hire an archer for $10,000 to shoot a flaming arrow or better yet, one of those exploding arrows from Rambo or the Dukes of Hazzard. Even better, get Stallone or John Schneider (Bo Duke) to shoot the flaming arrow at the boat. However, I don’t think you could get one of those guys to do it for $10,000. I wonder what think tank they hired who is still working on that little problem? WTF

-The national debt reaches $15 Trillion. Probably won’t happen in 2009, but if they start printing money for more bailouts and our GDP keeps shrinking, it just might happen. Currently we are sitting at a smidge under $11 Trillion.

-Government issues another stimulus payout. Not likely, because the real difference would be make with the loosening of the credit market. If checks are issued to tax payers, most of the money will be tossed into savings accounts or to put towards credit card debt. It would backfire, just like the one last year.

-Gold will top $1,000 per ounce. Not likely as it currently sits at about $880 per ounce. The demand should increase as the stock market continues to decline in the 1st quarter and folks start getting defensive.

For entertainment purposes only. My Sure Thing Predictions For 2009

-Paris Hilton will still be useless.

-Pirates will still be hijacking oil tankers with sharpened sticks and six shooters.

-Peace will not happen in the Middle East.

-McCain and Palin will still be mavericks.

-More Hallmark and Lifetime channel Christmas movies starring has-been actors will still be made and still suck and I will watch every single one of them. I’m still waiting for a Christmas movie starring Dustin Diamond (Screech Saved By The Bell for all you youngsters).

-Unions will continue to suck companies dry and operate inefficiently. Boeing is the latest victim of unions sucking and the fallout hasn’t been realized yet.

-Suicide bombing in Afghanistan and Iraq will still be considered trendy.

-College tuition will continue to increase while the value will continue to decrease. College tuition is the only product I know of whose demand and price increase and the utility decreases all at the same time. College education is the biggest rip-off on the planet, but a necessary evil. Educational background should have nothing to do with gaining a job. Every job should have an interview process and an exam directly geared towards the position in question.

-The majority of investors will continue to buy high and sell low. Ah, the irony of human reason. Fight the herd mentality. Buffett said it best. “When everyone is fearful, be greedy. When everyone is greedy, be fearful.”

-G-Dubyah will write his memoirs. Hopefully, they’ll get someone to proof read that piece……of dookie.

-James Lipton will still be a legend in his own mind and a complete failure.

-J-Lo will still have no discernable talent to speak of.

That's all folks. Keep an eye out and see which predictions are realized and which fall by the wayside. Peace and I'm out!!